DEMAND ESTIMATION FOR OUTDOOR RECREATIONAL ACTIVITIES IN KADUNA METROPOLIS

By

Author

Presented To

Department of Environmental Design

ABSTRACT
Amongst the crucial challenges faced by the recreation planner is that of translating the recreational needs of the population into reality. This the recreation planner does through preparation of recreation plans. In preparing a recreation plan the factors of demand ( population, education, income, mobility, employment) are largely considered in establishing demand, estimating demand, and projecting demand. However, considering these factors alone is not enough a basis for predicting the pattern of demand into various recreational pursuits especially in the future, as demand for recreation does change due to new status acquired by the people. This is evident in the high level of popularity of certain recreation activities at a particular point in time, while at the same time popularity into other recreational activities is declining, all as a result of the changing pattern of demand. The methodology of the research involves the use of primary and secondary sources of information. The primary source acquire information on the factors of demand, in establishing demand for recreation at present time (i.e. establishing demand through age, sex, income, education background, mobility etc.). The Secondary source of information is from obtained data (participation level) for various recreational pursuits which is subjected to the trend analysis of which the least square method is used to take care of external factors (such as climatic changes seasonal variations etc.) that can influence participation into the activities. The findings reveals that some outdoor recreational activities are showing signs of decline in their pattern of demand in the future, while others recreational activities are recording remarkable increase in their pattern of demand in the future. This changing nature of demand can only be understood through the trend analysis which predicts the pattern of demand into various recreational pursuit in the future, thereby giving the recreation planner an insight on the trend of demand over a long period of time. Hence, combining the demographic trends( population, education, income, mobility, employment) with the trend analysis will go along way in establishing what is currently in demand( as regards recreation) and predicting what will eventually be demanded for over time.