RISK IDENTIFICATION AND ASSESSMENT IN HOUSING DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS USING ANALYTICAL HIERARCHICAL PROCESS

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Author

Presented To

Department of Environmental Design

ABSTRACT
The construction industry and housing subsector is fraught with risks that have the potential of negatively impacting on the achievement of project objectives. The success or otherwise of most construction and housing projects depends to large extent on how well these risks have been managed. The aim of the study is to identify and assess risk associated with housing development projectswith a view toprioritisingthe identified risk factors to provide stakeholders with basis for sound decision. The study useda three-step identification framework (a literature review of documented past experience, experts? consultation and questionnaire based survey)to identify the potential key risk factors. The use of Analytical Hierarchical Process assessment methodology was employed to carry out relative prioritization assessment of the risk factors. The results show that 50 risk factors have relevant impact on housing development project objectives and 19 of these risk factors are of significant level. Similarly, based on the Analytic Hierarchical Process (AHP) relative-assessment ranking, at macro level, Economic risk and Land acquisition risk are found to have the highest level of impact while changes in demand for houses and interest rate fluctuation sub-factors have the highest ranking at micro level. The study concluded that a suitable identification framework and an efficient and flexible risk assessment methodology are keys to the identification and assessment of risks, and achievement of robust risk management system in housing development project. To this end, the study recommendsthe adoption and use of the combination of the multi-technique identification framework and AHP assessment methodology as a suitable model for management of risks in housing development project. In addition, the study drew attention to the need for focus on highly prioritised risk factors to reduce their chances of occurrence and impact on the achievement of project objectives.