TABLE OF CONTENTS
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS- - - - - iv
ABSTRACT - - - - - - v
LIST OF TABLES - - - - - - - - xiii
LIST OF FIGURES - - - - - - - xv
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS - - - - - xvi
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION- - - - - - - 1
1 1 Introduction - - - - - - - - 1
1 2 Background to the problem - - - - - - - - - - - - 3
1 3 Problem statement - - - - - - 12
1 4 Objectives of the study - - - - - - 13
1 5 Contribution and justification for the study - - - - 15
1 6 Outline of the study - - - - - - - 16
CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT:
CONTEMPORAY ISSUES AND THEIR RELEVANCE TO NIGERIA’S
ECONOMY- - - - - - 18
21 Introduction - - - - - - 18
22 Overview of economic development - - - - - 19
221 The concept and relevance of economic development - - - - - - 19
222 Economic development: the perspective of human development
index (HDI)- - - - - - - 20
223 Economic development lesson for the developing countries - - - - 22
23 Overview of the Nigerian economy - - - - 28
231 Undiversified economic base of Nigeria - - - - - - 31
232 Weak manufacturing sector (industry)- - - - - - 31
233 The growing incidence of poverty in the Nigerian economy - - - 32
234 The impact of external debt burden on Nigerian economy - - 32
235 Evidence of corruption in the Nigerian economy - - - - - - - 32
24 Development prospects of Nigeria - - - - - - 34
2
41 Liberalisation of the economy - - - - - - 34
242 Restructuring and privatisation programmes in the Nigerian economy - 35
243 Financial sector liberalisation and policy reforms - - - 36
244 Attraction of foreign private investment into the agricultural sector - - 37
245 Industrialisation policy and incentives for small, medium
and large-scale Enterprises - - - - - - - - - 37
246 Social and environmental services reforms in Nigerian economy- - - - 38
25 Evidence from development models in Asian countries- - 39
25 1 The adoption of special economic zones - - - - - - - 39
252 Encouragement of private entrepreneurs and institutions - - - - - 40
253 Adoption of sound macroeconomic policy management - - 40
254 Adoption of a labour intensive manufacturing strategy - - - 41
255 Adoption of strategies to develop human capital - - - - - - 41
256 Increased productivity and rise in real wages - - - - - 42
257 Mitigation of corruption in the economies - - - - - 42
26 Overview and lessons from a Malaysian development model - - - - - - 42
27 Development model applicable to Nigeria - - - - - - - 46
271 Efficient utilisation of agricultural potentials in the development process- - - - 46
272 Adoption of attractive manufacturing (industrial) incentives - - - - - 48
273 Attraction of FDI into the economy - - - - - 48
274 Outwardly-oriented or export-led development strategies through
trade and regional integration - - - - - - 49
275 Private-entrepreneur driven development process - - - - - - - 50
276 A need for a professional civil service - - - - - 50
277 Human resources development - - - - - 51
278 Information technology driven economy - - - - - - - 52
28 Summary of the review findings and conclusions - - - - - 52
CHAPTER THREE: POLICY FRAMEWORK TO ACHIEVE THE MILLENNIUM
DEVELOPMENT GOALS IN NIGERIA- - - - 56
31 Introduction - - - - - - - - - - 56
32 Policy framework of the MDGs - - - - - - - 57
33 The MDGs: efforts, progress and challenges in Nigeria - - - - - - 59
34 General appraisal and challenges facing the country in meeting the MDGs - - - - - 64
35 The role of foreign partners in achieving the MDGs in Nigeria - - 66
351 Official Development Assistance (ODA) - - - - - - 66
352 Trade and development - - - - - - - 68
353 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Nigeria- - - - - - - 72
354 External debt relief - - - - - 74
36 Summary of the main findings and conclusions - - - - - - - 78
CHAPTER FOUR: THE RELEVANCE OF GROWTH IN NIGERIA’S SUPPORT
SECTORS FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT- - - - - - 80
41 Introduction - - - - - - - 80
42 Relevance of the agricultural sector in Nigeria - - - - 82
421 Provision of food security - - - - - - 82
422 Provision of raw materials for domestic industries - - - - 85
423 Provision of foreign exchange from exports - - - 85
424 Structural transformation in Nigeria - - - - 87
425 Provision of employment opportunities - - - - - - 87
426 Provision of large markets for industrial products - - - - - - - 87
43 The relevance of the manufacturing sector in economic growth and
development in Nigeria - - - - - - 88
431 Historical association with development - - - - 89
432 Inability to harness the potential in agriculture - - - - 89
433 Developing countries as agricultural societies - - - - - - 89
434 Manufacturing sector as complement to other sectors in job creation - - 89
435 Manufacturing as a relevant development strategy because of its
efficient use of land resources - - - - - - 90
436 Industrialisation promoting national integration - - - - - - 90
437 The manufacturing sector providing additional income - - - - - - 90
438 Industrialisation inducing technological development - - - - - - 91
439 Highly industrialised nations and the status of superpower - - - - - 91
44 Relevance of mining and quarrying (solid minerals) in economic growth and
development of Nigeria - - - - - 92
45 Relevance of the growth support sectors, education and health, in achieving
economic development in Nigeria - - - - - - 98
451 Education as condition and support sector for MDGs in Nigeria - - - - 98
452 The importance of health care service as growth support sector for
attaining the MDGs in Nigeria - - - - - - 105
4 6 Summary of the main findings and conclusions - - - - - 107
CHAPTER FIVE: THEORETICAL AND ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK - 109
51 Introduction - - - - - - - - - 109
52 The concept of cointegration and error-correction (ECM) econometrics
methodology- - - - - - - - - 111
53 Structure of the model - - - - - 115
54 Model for agriculture - - - - - - - 116
55 Basic hypotheses, assumptions and expectations for each variable in the
cointegration agricultural model - - - - - - 117
56 Model for the manufacturing sector - - - - - - 119
57 Basic hypotheses, assumptions and expectations for each variable in the
cointegration manufacturing model - - - - - 120
5 8 Model for the mining and quarrying sector - - - - - - - 121
59 Hypotheses and basic expectations for each of the variables included in the
mining and quarrying (solid minerals) model- - - - - - 122
510 Summary of the main findings and conclusions - - - - - 122
CHAPTER SIX: EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS AND PRESENTATION OF
ESTIMATED RESULTS - - - - - 124
61 Introduction - - - - - - - - - 124
62 The model for agriculture - - - - - - - - 125
621 Estimation results of long-run cointegration equation - - - - 125
622 Estimation results of the error correction model (ECM) - - - 126
623 Diagnostic statistical testing- - - - - - 127
624 Cointegration correction and adjusted coefficients - - 127
625 Analysis of the results of the estimated models for agriculture
and their implications - - - - - - - 130
63 The model for manufacturing - - - - 131
631 Estimation results for long-run cointegration equation - - - - 131
632 Estimation results of the error correction model (ECM)- - - - 132
633 Diagnostic statistical testing - - - - - - 134
634 Cointegration correction and adjusted coefficients - - - - 134
635 Analysis of the results of the estimated manufacturing model and
their implications - - - - - - - - 137
64 Model for the mining and quarrying sector- - - - 137
641 Estimation results of long-run cointegration equation- - 138
642 Estimation results of the error correction model (ECM)- - - - - - 139
643 Diagnostic statistical testing - - - - - - - 140
644 Cointegration correction and adjusted coefficients - - - 141
65 Dynamic simulation and response property of the model- - - - 144
651 Policy shocks - - - - - 145
652 Forecasts- - - - - - - - - - - 149
66 Dynamic simulation of the results and the policy-scenarios- - - - - - 153
67 Summary of the main findings and conclusion- - - - - - 155
CHAPTER SEVEN: SUMMARY OF MAJOR FINDINGS AND POLICY
IMPLICATIONS, CONLUDING REMARKS, LIMITATIONS,
RECOMMENDATIONS AND SUGGESTIONS FOR FURTHER WORK- 158
71 Summary of major findings and policy implications - - - - - - - 158
72 Concluding remarks - - - - - - 163
73 Limitation of the study - - - - - - - - 164
74 Policy recommendations - - - - - 164
75 Suggestions for further work - - - - - 166
BIBLIOGRAPHY - - - - - - - - - 167
APPENDICES - - - - - 186
Appendix 1 List of variables- - - - - 186
Appendix 2 Stochastic functions- - - - - - - 187
Appendix 3 Graphical representation of the data- - - - - - - 188
Appendix 4 Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests for non-stationarity,
levels, 1970-2003 - - - - - - - 194
Appendix 5 Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests for non-stationarity,
First differences, 1970-2003 - - - - 195
