In the 1960s, Nigeria was on a par, in terms of aspirations to attain a very high level of economic growth and development, with its fellow-oil producing and exporting countries such as Malaysia and Indonesia, but has since failed to keep pace with them. Nigeria’s agricultural, manufacturing and mining and quarrying sectors have played a continuous and significant role in the development of the country’s economy. The approval of the millennium development goals (MGDs) by the United Nations General Assembly therefore raises three pivotal questions for Nigeria. 1) Why is Nigeria still an underdeveloped and lowincome country? 2) What should the country do to make rapid economic and social progress? and 3) How can it attain a high level of economic development and growth?. This is the background of this study, which is an empirical investigation into the factors affecting Nigeria’s bid to achieve sustainable economic growth and development with particular reference to such sectors as agriculture, manufacturing and mining and quarrying (solid minerals) over the period of 1970-2005. This involves the analysis of the relevance of the health care and education sectors and examination of impediments to past economic development, a development model applicable to Nigeria, the efforts made and the challenges facing the country in achieving the MDGs, and the role of foreign development partners in complementing Nigeria’s development efforts. 

 1 1 Introduction -  -  -  -  - - - - 1

 1 2 Background to the problem -  -  - - - - - - - - - - 3

 1 3 Problem statement -  -  -  -  - - 12

 1 4 Objectives of the study -  -  -  -  - - 13

 1 5 Contribution and justification for the study -  -  -  - 15

 1 6 Outline of the study -  -  -  -  - - - 16

 21 Introduction -  -  -  -  -  - 18

 22 Overview of economic development -  -  -  -  - 19

 221 The concept and relevance of economic development - - - - -  -  19

 222 Economic development: the perspective of human development

 index (HDI)-  -  -  -  - - - 20

 223 Economic development lesson for the developing countries -  - - - 22

 23 Overview of the Nigerian economy -  -  -  -  28

 231 Undiversified economic base of Nigeria -  -  -  - - - 31

 232 Weak manufacturing sector (industry)-  -  -  - - - 31

 233 The growing incidence of poverty in the Nigerian economy -  - - 32

 234 The impact of external debt burden on Nigerian economy -  -  32

 235 Evidence of corruption in the Nigerian economy -  -  - - - - - 32

 24 Development prospects of Nigeria -  -  -  - - - 34

 2 41 Liberalisation of the economy -  -  -  -  - - 34

 242 Restructuring and privatisation programmes in the Nigerian economy -  35

 243 Financial sector liberalisation and policy reforms -  -  - 36

 244 Attraction of foreign private investment into the agricultural sector -  - 37 

245 Industrialisation policy and incentives for small, medium

 and large-scale Enterprises -  -  -  -  - - - - - 37

 246 Social and environmental services reforms in Nigerian economy-  - - - 38

 25 Evidence from development models in Asian countries-  -  39

 25 1 The adoption of special economic zones -  -  - - - - - 39

 252 Encouragement of private entrepreneurs and institutions -  - - - - 40

 253 Adoption of sound macroeconomic policy management -  -  40

 254 Adoption of a labour intensive manufacturing strategy -  -  - 41

 255 Adoption of strategies to develop human capital -  -  - - - - 41

 256 Increased productivity and rise in real wages -  -  - - - 42

 257 Mitigation of corruption in the economies -  -  -  - - 42

 26 Overview and lessons from a Malaysian development model -  - - - - - 42

 27 Development model applicable to Nigeria -  -  -  - - - - 46

 271 Efficient utilisation of agricultural potentials in the development process- - - - 46

 272 Adoption of attractive manufacturing (industrial) incentives -  - - - - 48

 273 Attraction of FDI into the economy -  -  -  - - 48

 274 Outwardly-oriented or export-led development strategies through

 trade and regional integration -  -  -  - - - 49

 275 Private-entrepreneur driven development process -  -  - - - - - 50

 276 A need for a professional civil service -  -  -  - - 50

 277 Human resources development -  -  -  - - 51

 278 Information technology driven economy -  -  - - - - - 52

28 Summary of the review findings and conclusions -  -  - - - 52

 31 Introduction -  -  -  -  -  - - - - - 56

 32 Policy framework of the MDGs -  -  -  - - - - 57

 33 The MDGs: efforts, progress and challenges in Nigeria -  -  - - - - 59

 34 General appraisal and challenges facing the country in meeting the MDGs - - - - - 64

 35 The role of foreign partners in achieving the MDGs in Nigeria -  -  66

 351 Official Development Assistance (ODA) -  -  -  - - - 66

 352 Trade and development -  -  -  -  - - - 68

 353 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Nigeria-  -  - - - - - 72

 354 External debt relief -  -  -  -  -  74 

36 Summary of the main findings and conclusions -  -  - - - - - 78

41 Introduction -  -  -  -  -  - - 80

42 Relevance of the agricultural sector in Nigeria -  -  -  - 82

 421 Provision of food security -  -  -  -  - - 82

 422 Provision of raw materials for domestic industries -  -  - - 85

 423 Provision of foreign exchange from exports -  -  -  85

 424 Structural transformation in Nigeria -  -  -  - 87

 425 Provision of employment opportunities -  -  -  - - - 87

 426 Provision of large markets for industrial products -  -  - - - - - 87

 43 The relevance of the manufacturing sector in economic growth and

 development in Nigeria -  -  -  -  - - 88

 431 Historical association with development -  -  -  - 89

 432 Inability to harness the potential in agriculture -  -  -  - 89

 433 Developing countries as agricultural societies -  -  - - - - 89

 434 Manufacturing sector as complement to other sectors in job creation -  - 89

 435 Manufacturing as a relevant development strategy because of its

 efficient use of land resources -  -  - - -  - 90

 436 Industrialisation promoting national integration -  -  - - - - 90

 437 The manufacturing sector providing additional income -  - - - - - 90

 438 Industrialisation inducing technological development -  - - - - - 91

 439 Highly industrialised nations and the status of superpower -  - - - - 91

 44 Relevance of mining and quarrying (solid minerals) in economic growth and

 development of Nigeria -  -  -  -  - 92

 45 Relevance of the growth support sectors, education and health, in achieving

 economic development in Nigeria -  -  -  - - - 98

 451 Education as condition and support sector for MDGs in Nigeria -  - - - 98

 452 The importance of health care service as growth support sector for

 attaining the MDGs in Nigeria -  -  -  - - - 105

 4 6 Summary of the main findings and conclusions -  -  - - - 107

51 Introduction -  -  -  -  - - - - - 109

52 The concept of cointegration and error-correction (ECM) econometrics

 methodology-  -  -  -  - - - - - 111

53 Structure of the model -  -  -  -  - 115 

54 Model for agriculture -  -  -  -  - - - 116

55 Basic hypotheses, assumptions and expectations for each variable in the

 cointegration agricultural model -  -  -  - - - 117

56 Model for the manufacturing sector -  -  -  - - - 119

57 Basic hypotheses, assumptions and expectations for each variable in the

 cointegration manufacturing model -  -  -  - - 120

 5 8 Model for the mining and quarrying sector -  -  - - - - - 121

 59 Hypotheses and basic expectations for each of the variables included in the

 mining and quarrying (solid minerals) model-  -  - - - - 122

510 Summary of the main findings and conclusions -  -  - - - 122

 61 Introduction -  -  - - - -  -  - - 124

 62 The model for agriculture -  -  -  - - - - - 125

 621 Estimation results of long-run cointegration equation -  -  - - 125

 622 Estimation results of the error correction model (ECM) -  -  - 126

 623 Diagnostic statistical testing-  -  -  - - - 127

 624 Cointegration correction and adjusted coefficients -  -  127

 625 Analysis of the results of the estimated models for agriculture

 and their implications -  - - -  -  -  - 130

 63 The model for manufacturing -  -  -  -  131

 631 Estimation results for long-run cointegration equation -  -  - - 131

 632 Estimation results of the error correction model (ECM)-  -  - - 132

 633 Diagnostic statistical testing -  -  -  - - - 134

 634 Cointegration correction and adjusted coefficients -  -  - - 134

 635 Analysis of the results of the estimated manufacturing model and

 their implications -  -  -  -  -  - - - 137

64 Model for the mining and quarrying sector-  -  -  - 137

 641 Estimation results of long-run cointegration equation-  -  138

 642 Estimation results of the error correction model (ECM)-  - - - - - 139

 643 Diagnostic statistical testing -  -  -  - - - - 140

 644 Cointegration correction and adjusted coefficients -  -  - 141

65 Dynamic simulation and response property of the model-  -  - - 144

 651 Policy shocks -  -  -  -  -  145

 652 Forecasts-  -  - - - -  -  - - - - 149 

66 Dynamic simulation of the results and the policy-scenarios-  - - - - - 153

67 Summary of the main findings and conclusion-  -  - - - - 155

71 Summary of major findings and policy implications -  -  - - - - - 158

72 Concluding remarks -  -  -  -  - - 163

73 Limitation of the study -  -  -  -  - - - - 164

74 Policy recommendations -  -  -  -  - 164

75 Suggestions for further work -  -  -  -  - 166

 Appendix 1 List of variables-  -  -  -   - 186

 Appendix 2 Stochastic functions-  -  -  - - - - 187

 Appendix 3 Graphical representation of the data-  -  - - - - - 188

 Appendix 4 Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests for non-stationarity,

 levels, 1970-2003 -  -  -  -  - - - 194

 Appendix 5 Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests for non-stationarity,

 First differences, 1970-2003 -  -  -  -  195